Cost Estimation and Efficiency Analysis of Korean CANDU Spent Fuel Disposal Alternatives in Consideration of Future Price Volatility

Table 5

ARIMA estimation models for the price forecasting of cost drivers.

		Model type	Model parameters			Ljung-Box Q
			Coefficients		-value; (sig.)	Statistics	DF	Sig.
Tunnel excavation			AR Lag 1	0.984	10.669; (0.000)	17.380	16	0.361
			MA Lag 1	0.862	3.194; (0.003)
Disposal hole			AR Lag 1	0.984	10.669; (0.000)	17.380	16	0.361
			MA Lag 1	0.862	3.194; (0.003)
Bentonite			AR Lag 1	0.999	337.68; (0.000)	3.848	17	1.000
Canister	Cast iron		MA Lag 1	−0.338	−1.961; (0.059)	5.479	17	0.996
	Copper plate		Constant	7,299.2	3.405; (0.002)	7.765	17	0.971
			AR Lag 1	0.946	19.069; (0.000)
	Copper powder		Constant	43,434.7	4.479; (0.000)	9.616	17	0.919
			AR Lag 1	0.929	14.854; (0.000)
Backfilling			AR Lag 1	0.999	337.68; (0.000)	3.848	17	1.000