Research Article
Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model
Table 1
Confidence levels and error values of mean seismic probability risk model for the usual range of
and
values.
| | | Confidence levels and error results between risk model with 99% confidence
and mean risk model (in brackets) | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | 5.6789 | 61.18% (2.1895) | 71.49% (6.3685) | 80.28% (11.3305) | 87.20% (13.9460) | 92.22% (12.1224) | 95.58% (7.3452) | | 1.75 | 4.1146 | 58.15% (1.3930) | 65.96% (3.8346) | 73.14% (7.2461) | 79.47% (10.8745) | 84.82% (13.4364) | 89.15% (13.8175) | | 2 | 3.3219 | 56.60% (1.0495) | 63.01% (2.7618) | 69.09% (5.1830) | 74.68% (8.1008) | 79.69% (10.9961) | 84.05% (13.1603) | | 2.25 | 2.8394 | 55.64% (0.8594) | 61.18% (2.1895) | 66.49% (4.0473) | 71.49% (6.3685) | 76.11% (8.9240) | 80.28% (11.3305) | | 2.5 | 2.5129 | 55.00% (0.7385) | 59.92% (1.8374) | 64.69% (3.3476) | 69.24% (5.2539) | 73.51% (7.4455) | 77.45% (9.7071) | | 2.75 | 2.2762 | 54.53% (0.6547) | 59.00% (1.5998) | 63.36% (2.8784) | 67.55% (4.4937) | 71.53% (6.3888) | 75.27% (8.4360) | | 3 | 2.0959 | 54.17% (0.5930) | 58.30% (1.4286) | 62.34% (2.5433) | 66.25% (3.9476) | 69.99% (5.6114) | 73.53% (7.4551) | | 3.25 | 1.9536 | 53.89% (0.5456) | 57.74% (1.2993) | 61.53% (2.2926) | 65.20% (3.5383) | 68.74% (5.0212) | 72.11% (6.6895) | | 3.5 | 1.8380 | 53.66% (0.5079) | 57.29% (1.1981) | 60.86% (2.0979) | 64.34% (3.2210) | 67.71% (4.5602) | 70.93% (6.0810) | | 3.75 | 1.7421 | 53.47% (0.4771) | 56.91% (1.1166) | 60.31% (1.9424) | 63.62% (2.9681) | 66.84% (4.1913) | 69.94% (5.5885) | | 4 | 1.6610 | 53.31% (0.4515) | 56.60% (1.0495) | 59.84% (1.8152) | 63.01% (2.7618) | 66.10% (3.8897) | 69.09% (5.1830) | | 4.25 | 1.5914 | 53.17% (0.4298) | 56.32% (0.9933) | 59.43% (1.7092) | 62.49% (2.5903) | 65.46% (3.6389) | 68.35% (4.8439) | | 4.5 | 1.5309 | 53.05% (0.4112) | 56.08% (0.9453) | 59.08% (1.6194) | 62.03% (2.4455) | 64.90% (3.4271) | 67.70% (4.5566) | | 4.75 | 1.4778 | 52.95% (0.3950) | 55.87% (0.9039) | 58.77% (1.5423) | 61.62% (2.3215) | 64.41% (3.2458) | 67.12% (4.3101) | | 5 | 1.4307 | 52.85% (0.3807) | 55.69% (0.8677) | 58.50% (1.4753) | 61.26% (2.2141) | 63.97% (3.0889) | 66.61% (4.0963) | | 5.25 | 1.3886 | 52.77% (0.3681) | 55.52% (0.8358) | 58.25% (1.4165) | 60.94% (2.1201) | 63.58% (2.9517) | 66.15% (3.9093) | | 5.5 | 1.3507 | 52.69% (0.3568) | 55.37% (0.8075) | 58.03% (1.3645) | 60.65% (2.0372) | 63.22% (2.8307) | 65.73% (3.7442) | | 5.75 | 1.3164 | 52.62% (0.3466) | 55.24% (0.7821) | 57.83% (1.3180) | 60.38% (1.9633) | 62.90% (2.7231) | 65.35% (3.5974) | | 6 | 1.2851 | 52.56% (0.3374) | 55.11% (0.7592) | 57.64% (1.2763) | 60.14% (1.8971) | 62.60% (2.6268) | 65.01% (3.4660) |
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