Quantifying Spillover Risk with an Integrated Bat-Rabies Dynamic Modeling Framework

Figure 4

(a–c) Distribution of the number of outbreaks (i.e. infection detections) in farms for different combinations of interventions. (d–f) Distribution of maximal distances of virus spread from a single initial infection in a roost to a farm in one year in kilometers, including no virus spillovers to farms, i.e., zero distances, for different combinations of interventions. The initial suitability environment of a first infected roost is either (a, d) high (90−100th percentile), (b, e) middle (45−55th percentile), or (c, f) low (0–10th percentile). For Welch’s F test statistics and values for each comparison (a–f) to test the hypothesis of equal means in the four intervention strategies, see Table S3. (a, d) High suitability environment. (b, e) Middle suitability environment. (c, f) Low suitability environment.

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