Simulating the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Kazakhstan Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model

Table 1

Summary of NAADSM parameters on the PPR spread simulation in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Parameter	Measurement unit	Value or distribution	Data sources
Duration of the latent period in PPR	Day	BetaPert (3, 7, 10)	[19, 25]
Duration of the subclinical period	Day	Not expressed	[19, 25]
Duration of the infectious clinical period	Day	BetaPert (2, 7, 21)	[26, 27]
Duration of the immune period	Day	BetaPert (180, 730, 1460)	[4]
Probability of the death of a herd from the disease	%	95%	[25]
Average number of contacts between herds by direct contact	Contacts per day	1	Estimates of experts
Probability of the disease transmission by direct contact	Probability	0.95	Estimates of experts
Distributing distances between herds for direct contact	Km	Lognormal (13, 10)	Calculated in GIS based on average distance between the nearest neighboring farms
Average number of contacts between herds by indirect contact	Contacts per day	0.5	Estimates of experts
Probability of the disease transmission by indirect contact	Probability	0.95	Estimates of experts
Distribution of distances between herds for indirect contact	km	Exponential (50)	Based on a recommended surveillance radius of 50 km, assuming that indirect contacts are most likely to occur within this radius
Duration of postvaccination immunity	Day	BetaPert (365, 720, 1460). Delay of 14 days after vaccination	[18, 28]
Probability of observing clinical signs after N-days in clinical condition	day-%	0–0%	Estimates of experts
		3.5–25%
		7–90%