Research Article

Simulating the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Kazakhstan Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model

Table 2

Summary output data of different scenarios of PPR spread in the Republic of Kazakhstan and epidemiological parameters (mean values and 95% CI boundaries).

ScenarioThe initially infected farmTotal number of infected farmsTotal number of infected animalsTotal number of farms where animals were involuntarily slaughteredTotal number of animals involuntarily slaughteredTotal number of vaccinated farmsTotal number of animals in vaccinated farmsTotal duration of the epizooty, dayHow many iterations out of 100 the zoning was establishedThe largest area of the risk zones (km2)

East high risk clusterSmall5.29 (1–19.05)11, 988 (34–48, 144)3.58 (0–19.05)9, 232 (0–48, 144)4.64 (0–24.2)12, 493 (0–74, 795)33.6 ( 13–75)3916, 702 (0–29, 651)
Large4.2 (1–14)43, 722 (24, 545–113, 773)2.64 (0–14)20, 888 (0–106, 056)2.09 (0–14.05)10, 648 (0–99, 817)33 (14–73)3121, 028 (10, 462–31, 419)

South high risk clusterSmall16.41 (1–51.05)36, 8831 (565–1, 141, 021)14.96 (0–49.15)348, 226 (0–1, 135, 492)15.8 (0–63.05)387, 520 (0–1, 486, 300)50.8 (14–109)5822, 626 (7, 725–41, 448)
Large14.53 (1–60)418, 778 (167, 918–1, 240, 423)13.2 (0–59.05)317, 373 (0–1, 240, 423)19.82 (0–67.05)514, 865 (0–1, 713, 552)47.2 (13–110)4128, 128 (7, 725–46, 777)

West high risk clusterSmall6.31 (1–20)37, 212 (2, 942–94, 563)4.34 (0–19.05)24, 905 (0–90, 557)2.92 (0–19.05)16, 746 (0–86, 787)41.86 (14–96.1)4019, 425 (7, 339–33, 960)
Large3.59 (1–9)90, 837 (43, 302–188, 813)1.64 (0–8.05)34, 981 (0–173, 407)0.64 (0–3.15)11, 012 (0–68, 376)31 (12.95–61.05)3715, 223 (0–34, 989)

The smallest farm4.67 (1–13.1)10, 632 (18–27, 647)2.79 (0–13.1)6, 800 (0–25, 698)3 (0–22.15)9, 978 (0–61, 604)55.6 (13.95–68.1)2922, 055 (9, 153–38, 422)
The most remote farm in the least risk area4.76 (1–9)23, 365 (4, 467–47, 495)3.03 (0–9)15, 758 (0–47, 336)0.28 (0–1)1, 065 (0–7, 784)36 (12.95–65.05)3321, 292 (7, 725–36, 629)