Impact of Parameterization of Physical Processes on Simulation of Track and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM Model

Table 2

Mean absolute track errors (km) with two optimum physics combinations with different initial conditions.

Initial conditions	Land surface	00 hr	12 hrs	24 hrs	36 hrs	48 hrs	60 hr	72 hrs	84 hrs	96 hrs
1200 UTC 28 Apr 08	NMM	118.68	145.58	22.28	33.97	68.96	57.90	54.00	77.90	144.4
0000 UTC 29 Apr 08		185.75	75.73	55.06	101	10.71	53.44	42.75	53.44	63.8
1200 UTC 29 Apr 08		31.78	19.76	170.6	61.33	106	106.8	15.4	76.8
0000 UTC 30 Apr 08		59.61	204.7	54.85	88.95	55.5	0.0	0.0
1200 UTC 30 Apr 08		38.8	77.25	39	69.57	22.23	43.35
Mean error		86.924	104.604	68.358	70.964	52.68	52.298	28.0375	69.38	104.1
1200 UTC 28 Apr 08	NOAH	118.68	192.93	95	73.67	109.65	172.84	64.75	87.76	150.24
0000 UTC 29 Apr 08		185.75	45.37	96.91	56.67	29.62	88.29	47.87	71.24	120.11
1200 UTC 29 Apr 08		31.78	9.29	160.48	81.62	78	88.4	54.46	46.1
0000 UTC 30 Apr 08		59.61	204.7	54.85	91.5	59.5	0.0	0.0
1200 UTC 30 Apr 08		38.8	93.43	39	69.57	22.23	43.35
Mean error		86.924	109.144	89.248	74.606	59.8	78.576	41.77	68.367	135.175
% of improvement		0	4.34	30.6	5.1	13.5	50.3	49	−1.4	30