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| Resource | Drivers of vulnerability | Adaptive capacity |
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| Natural systems |
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| Human resources | The obvious impoverishment of most people, especially in rural areas, and the increasing stratification of society.
A deteriorating demographic situation caused by a negative natural increase of the population and the aging of societies against the increase in morbidity and mortality.
A decline in the quality of education and its incompatibility with the contemporary needs of society and, above all, the economy.
Public risks associated with extreme events. | Partially retained thanks to that accumulated in previous years. For its maintenance a radical revision of Moldova’s existing social and economic policies is needed. |
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Water
resources | The high probability of exposure to the consequences of climate change and variability because “a river is a product of climate.”
Evident increase of variability of the Dniester runoff regime and quantity of flow, which makes more difficult their evaluation and prognosis.
Disastrous ecological conditions of small rivers, often being at risk of extinction, and reduction of their contribution to the basin's water resources.
Deterioration of surface water quality due to water temperature increase, decrease in runoff, and anthropogenic pollution.
Very likely continued decline of groundwater levels due to increased climate aridity, intense water withdrawal, and lack of the monitoring of ground water storage and quality. | Ample enough, with the anticipated maintenance or 15% increase in river flow and in the case of extending the network of water reservoirs, a competent river flow control and strict ensuring a minimum environmental runoff, as well as matching the water use with water resource availability. |
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Forest
resources | A likely change in species composition and wood species’ horizontal and vertical areas; the disappearance of certain hygrophilous species in the middle and lower Dniester.
A very likely emergence of new diseases and pests.
An ongoing unauthorized felling, often caused by high poverty levels. | Ample enough in the absence of human intervention in the Carpathians, but is low in Middle and Lower Dniester where intensive afforestation is needed. |
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| Ecosystems and wetlands | Very likely decrease of biodiversity and the replacement of primary successions by low-productive secondary ones.
Very likely decrease of natural habitats of indigenous species due to their drying, water quality deterioration at higher temperatures, and alien species invasion.
Likely deficit of water supply due to the priority use of Dniester water by certain “privileged” users, for example, hydropower. | At present is low, being in essence reduced to autonomous adaptation. |
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| Ichthyofauna | Reduction in species diversity and increase of invasive species. | Low, especially at the river mouth. |
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| Branches of economy |
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| Agriculture | A very likely increase of aridity; more frequent and intensive droughts and extreme weather phenomena (frost, heavy rains, hail, and rainless periods), especially in the middle and lower parts of the basin.
Almost complete destruction of the previous irrigation system, combined with a shortage in water resources available for irrigation.
Likely deterioration of soil fertility due to a possible increase in soil salinity, water erosion, and landslides.
Likely emergence and invasion of new plant pests and animal diseases.
Very likely further depopulation of rural areas and the declining contribution of agriculture to GDP. | Low due to reduced production, rural depopulation and rural-to-urban or abroad migration, and to destruction of large farms.
The absence of public subsidies that reduces the competitiveness of domestic products on local and foreign markets and export potential.
Reducing the capacity and efficiency of agricultural science. |
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| Water supply and sanitation | The likely falling of groundwater table and drying up of wells and springs that are main sources of water in rural area.
Lack of proper diversification of water delivery to its users.
Likely shortages of available water resources and the worsening of water quality. | Low if the present economic situation will continue. |
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| Fish industry | Likely change in the fish fauna, reduction of its biodiversity, and commercial fish catches due to the disappearance or reduction of spawning grounds. | Medium in the case of the strict control of fishing and spring water releases for spawning fish. |
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| Infrastructure | Likely deterioration due to both climate change direct effects (e.g., high summer temperatures or heavy rainfalls) and the lack of material resources to its maintaining. | Low due to the obvious lack of resources for maintenance and improvement. |
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