Seasonality and Dynamic Spatial Contagion of Air Pollution in 42 Chinese Cities
Table 2
DCC estimation results with seasonality dummies.
(a) Central China
API
AR
ARCH(α)
GARCH(β)
(10)
Changsha, regional, and national
Changsha
84.18† (31.90)
−14.46† (−4.60)
3.30 (0.97)
0.98 (0.26)
0.67† (33.02)
250.30† (5.03)
−152.69† (−3.81)
−59.93 (−1.69)
−10.65 (−0.24)
0.40† (5.32)
0.37† (5.18)
0.03† (4.02)
0.87† (21.21)
3.59
5.9
Regional
81.50† (33.47)
−16.22† (−5.89)
−2.63 (−0.82)
3.85 (1.28)
0.74† (54.58)
61.63† (2.93)
−48.50† (−2.74)
−23.99 (−1.59)
−12.66 (−0.77)
0.13† (2.07)
0.73† (7.80)
2.22
4.12
National
69.86† (38.40)
−10.80† (−5.15)
−2.98 (−1.33)
5.32† (2.40)
0.83† (68.03)
12.27† (2.51)
−9.84† (−2.42)
−4.78 (−1.56)
0.50 (0.17)
0.50† (0.17)
0.80† (12.13)
14.8♯
16.35*
Hefei, regional, and national
Hefei
82.47† (18.78)
0.08 (0.02)
2.31 (0.47)
−16.87† (−3.76)
0.60† (35.11)
353.46† (3.65)
−51.99 (−0.74)
−7.16 (−0.10)
−218.45† (−2.89)
0.40† (2.96)
0.22 (1.55)
0.01† (4.22)
0.96† (81.52)
4.16
4.19
Regional
83.48† (45.30)
2.57 (0.99)
−0.75 (−0.28)
−15.08† (−7.00)
0.75† (56.38)
99.23† (3.96)
−5.93 (−0.29)
−19.48 (−1.00)
−70.01† (−3.22)
0.19† (5.74)
0.49† (6.83)
3.32
4.9
National
49.53† (45.06)
4.98† (3.21)
−2.09 (−1.43)
−6.17† (−4.86)
0.81† (64.30)
1.83♯ (2.42)
−0.19 (−0.32)
−1.66† (−3.90)
−1.49♯ (2.45)
0.06♯ (2.35)
0.93† (30.22)
36.84†
48.18†
Nanchang, regional, and national
Nanchang
70.03† (37.56)
−11.22† (−5.15)
1.35 (0.53)
3.29 (1.32)
0.66† (45.11)
37.28♯ (2.49)
−23.34♯ (−2.40)
−7.13 (−1.08)
−4.36 (−0.63)
0.15† (3.18)
0.78† (12.11)
0.001 (0.77)
0.99† (44.85)
2.73
13.18
Regional
86.18† (31.18)
−16.05† (−5.15)
0.56 (0.16)
4.48 (1.33)
0.74† (55.09)
150.75♯ (2.55)
−111.46♯ (−2.30)
−59.29 (−1.50)
−35.52 (−0.92)
0.19† (3.73)
0.53† (4.28)
1.05
4.34
National
69.73† (40.41)
−11.07† (−5.51)
−2.03 (−0.90)
4.95♯ (2.28)
0.81† (63.94)
24.89♯ (2.35)
−18.87♯ (−2.28)
−8.98 (−1.61)
−0.06 (−0.01)
0.14† (3.88)
0.67† (6.29)
19.65†
25.84†
Wuhan, regional, and national
Wuhan
91.54† (29.18)
−21.13† (−5.96)
−3.86 (−0.97)
7.19* (1.71)
0.68† (44.34)
84.21 (1.64)
−71.05 (−1.52)
−39.78 (−0.97)
−32.21 (−0.84)
0.03 (0.72)
0.88† (13.70)
0.04♯ (2.15)
0.83† (6.10)
3.19
3.94
Regional
78.82† (39.56)
−13.82† (−6.15)
0.71 (0.27)
2.65 (1.06)
0.73† (52.61)
81.45† (4.74)
−55.86† (−4.20)
−19.16* (−1.74)
−5.76 (−0.43)
0.23† (4.30)
0.55† (7.64)
5.13
5.81
National
71.22† (44.53)
−11.65† (−6.36)
−2.44 (−1.17)
4.33♯ (2.12)
0.80† (61.94)
25.73† (3.91)
−19.0† (−3.70)
−8.22♯ (−2.24)
1.66 (0.38)
0.19† (4.88)
0.62† (8.69)
21.68†
24.17†
Zhenzhou, regional, and national
Zhenzhou
81.00† (36.24)
−11.65† (−4.77)
−5.29♯ (−2.08)
4.63* (1.75)
0.63† (37.22)
59.93 (1.40)
−43.24 (−1.39)
−24.84 (−1.11)
−17.26 (−1.00)
0.11♯ (2.25)
0.80† (7.33)
0.001†
0.99† (2945)
10.01*
17.2469*
Regional
84.81† (32.85)
−17.75† (−6.12)
−1.91 (−0.57)
3.25 (1.04)
0.73† (52.34)
101.93♯ (2.57)
−78.53♯ (−2.48)
−41.77* (−1.67)
−27.67 (−1.13)
0.14† (2.77)
0.68† (6.03)
1.22
3.34
National
75.82† (40.75)
−10.62† (−5.14)
−3.36 (−1.59)
7.16† (3.00)
0.80† (59.37)
33.88† (3.06)
−26.83† (−2.79)
−16.93♯ (−2.16)
−0.62 (−0.09)
0.22† (7.25)
0.58† (8.15)
5.95
6.72
(b) Eastern China
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Hangzhou, regional, and national
Hangzhou
84.28† (43.94)
−16.09† (−7.02)
−4.34* (−1.65)
1.83 (0.64)
0.59† (37.87)
252.22† (3.83)
−142.58† (−3.43)
−11.29 (−0.33)
100.51 (1.46)
0.16† (3.03)
0.42† (3.26)
0.04* (1.92)
0.86† (6.20)
1.04
1.98
Regional
52.56† (36.86)
−9.29† (−5.38)
−5.62† (−3.15)
−1.46 (−0.74)
0.66† (43.17)
20.15♯ (2.47)
−13.36♯ (−2.44)
−7.04 (−1.58)
1.70 (0.37)
0.13† (3.81)
0.80† (14.08)
5.05
7.05
National
57.05† (39.30)
−10.00† (−5.83)
−4.64♯ (−2.56)
0.35 (0.17)
0.70† (48.77)
16.51† (2.66)
−11.39† (−2.60)
−5.43* (−1.64)
1.91 (0.56)
0.13† (3.80)
0.79† (14.13)
19.26†
29.89†
Jinan, regional, and national
Jinan
94.30† (26.63)
−18.94† (−5.15)
−13.88† (−3.45)
6.018 (1.14)
0.65† (31.47)
441.31† (4.97)
−327.54† (−4.45)
−211.02† (−3.22)
4.36 (0.05)
0.40† (5.47)
0.25♯ (2.47)
0.05† (3.55)
0.74† (7.56)
1.53
3.25
Regional
61.49† (34.08)
−11.27† (−5.49)
−6.51† (−3.34)
3.90* (1.93)
0.67† (41.06)
89.43♯ (2.54)
−74.90♯ (−2.28)
−68.73♯ (−2.17)
−55.04* (−1.83)
0.18† (4.14)
0.60† (7.67)
8.83
8.88
National
77.89† (37.26)
−10.10† (−4.54)
−5.00♯ (−2.22)
6.59† (2.94)
0.74† (51.95)
66.97† (2.70)
−53.39♯ (−2.41)
−31.58* (−1.72)
−19.89 (−1.13)
0.29† (6.03)
0.53† (6.06)
5.19
6.41
Nanjing, regional, and national
Nanjing
84.59† (35.33)
−12.94† (−4.44)
−4.87* (−1.63)
−2.49 (−0.80)
0.62† (36.80)
86.66* (1.66)
−56.62* (−1.87)
−21.73 (−1.11)
−15.35 (−0.94)
0.11♯ (2.29)
0.80† (7.90)
0.03† (3.77)
0.93† (32.25)
9.25*
24.68†
Regional
65.33† (31.32)
−10.08† (−4.24)
−4.55* (−1.85)
2.81 (0.94)
0.67† (42.81)
101.86† (3.59)
−65.35† (−3.38)
−38.88♯ (−2.39)
2.39 (0.16)
0.27† (3.24)
0.44† (3.45)
2.09
8.39
National
73.12† (41.56)
−13.82† (−6.86)
−5.00♯ (−2.22)
2.45 (1.02)
0.72† (51.96)
26.34† (3.06)
−20.10† (−3.07)
−8.54* (−1.87)
−0.09 (−0.02)
0.11† (4.38)
0.80† (16.07)
9.65*
10.55
Nantong, regional, and national
Nantong
68.19† (14.36)
−10.52♯ (−2.18)
−6.40 (−1.30)
6.38 (1.02)
0.66† (34.22)
280.73† (3.17)
−202.64† (−2.77)
−159.47♯ (−2.26)
−69.24 (−0.96)
0.34† (3.24)
0.43† (2.89)
0.04† (5.33)
0.91† (41.58)
2.94
3.54
Regional
49.22† (37.62)
−8.15† (−5.11)
−4.11♯ (−2.43)
−1.50 (−0.79)
0.63† (38.48)
16.03† (2.62)
−9.51♯ (−2.36)
−3.32 (−0.99)
6.10 (1.17)
0.11† (3.77)
0.83† (18.27)
7.8
10.84
National
52.24† (40.25)
−8.73† (−5.55)
−3.89♯ (−2.32)
−0.56 (−0.30)
0.65† (41.65)
15.02† (2.64)
−9.09♯ (−2.43)
−3.02 (−1.01)
5.42 (1.22)
0.11† (3.70)
0.82† (16.74)
17.74†
27.74†
Qingdao, regional, and national
Qingdao
80.72† (30.88)
−19.02† (−6.53)
−11.33† (−4.06)
6.48♯ (2.25)
0.55† (27.15)
512.10♯ (2.22)
−445.14♯ (−2.04)
−422.50♯ (−1.97)
−373.96* (−1.82)
0.17† (3.24)
0.47† (3.63)
0.05† (4.13)
0.83† (13.74)
2.42
2.58
Regional
65.33† (41.43)
−11.50† (−6.77)
−7.78† (−4.47)
1.29 (0.69)
0.66† (41.60)
65.79† (3.60)
−50.91† (−3.02)
−40.75♯ (−2.44)
−26.38 (−1.47)
0.19† (5.91)
0.60† (6.36)
1.53
2.29
National
70.23† (36.82)
−10.27† (−5.29)
−5.43† (−2.75)
5.43† (2.61)
0.72† (46.27)
40.47† (3.75)
−31.59† (−3.77)
−23.64† (−3.33)
−13.54* (−1.71)
0.25† (7.36)
0.60† (6.31)
6.23
8.1
Shanghai, regional, and national
Shanghai
63.75† (11.52)
−4.78 (−0.88)
−1.40 (−0.25)
10.33 (1.48)
0.58† (23.54)
611.84† (4.24)
−474.37† (−3.36)
−382.55† (−2.67)
−200.07 (−1.50)
0.43† (3.45)
0.17 ♯ (2.14)
0.02† (3.86)
0.96† (59.35)
2.97
3.04
Regional
73.45† (36.31)
−13.11† (−5.46)
−7.24† (−2.85)
−0.100 (−0.03)
0.65† (43.49)
49.66♯ (2.11)
−34.73♯ (−2.19)
−19.47* (−1.66)
−0.33 (−0.03)
0.12† (3.66)
0.80† (11.40)
12.61♯
15.55
National
73.46† (36.57)
−12.99† (−5.52)
−6.54† (−2.60)
0.79 (0.28)
0.66† (45.32)
43.98♯ (2.06)
−31.01† (−2.13)
−16.77 (−1.60)
0.15 (0.02)
0.13† (3.46)
0.79† (10.58)
19.17†
23.57†
Suzhou, regional, and national
Suzhou
77.68† (40.11)
−12.25† (−5.04)
−6.02♯ (−2.30)
−3.67 (−1.27)
0.58† (34.60)
53.20† (2.60)
−30.28♯ (−2.43)
−10.57 (−1.01)
16.75 (1.00)
0.11† (3.58)
0.82† (16.89)
0.02♯ (2.01)
0.89† (12.60)
2.65
6.38
Regional
45.26† (23.51)
−8.72† (−4.14)
−5.66♯ (−2.53)
1.22 (0.46)
0.70† (42.74)
26.20 (1.24)
−19.78 (−1.29)
−13.00 (−1.10)
−4.10 (−0.59)
0.18 (1.79)
0.74† (4.44)
1.79
2.2
National
47.20† (23.76)
−7.65† (−3.38)
−3.39 (−1.48)
3.14 (1.09)
0.72† (44.55)
53.02♯ (2.34)
−37.24♯ (−2.33)
−24.45* (−1.85)
−2.92 (−0.33)
0.31† (2.74)
0.46† (2.60)
9.01
64.59†
Wenzhou, regional, and national
Wenzhou
69.56† (56.35)
−13.53† (−9.05)
−11.44† (−7.37)
−4.42♯ (−2.53)
0.61† (40.12)
120.45† (4.89)
−67.08† (−4.24)
−46.75† (−3.27)
7.38 (0.56)
0.13† (4.33)
0.34† (3.07)
0.03† (3.95)
0.89† (21.94)
1.36
7.69
Regional
59.83† (38.33)
−10.31† (−5.58)
−3.87* (−1.91)
1.70 (0.78)
0.66† (42.18)
80.09* (1.71)
−51.41* (−1.72)
−24.80 (−1.35)
10.60 (0.74)
0.19♯ (2.52)
0.52♯ (2.30)
5.35
15.41
National
64.36† (41.67)
−10.83† (−5.98)
−3.94* (−1.94)
3.18 (1.56)
0.77† (55.84)
24.59 (1.34)
−16.99 (−1.35)
−8.22 (−1.13)
5.36 (1.32)
0.12♯ (2.31)
0.67† (3.45)
1.04
4.72
Yantai, regional, and national
Yantai
65.04† (32.78)
−10.58† (−5.04)
−6.79† (−3.10)
1.20 (0.52)
0.58† (24.85)
54.92† (2.32)
−41.20* (−1.92)
−35.50* (−1.68)
−35.29* (−1.66)
0.18† (3.19)
0.76† (17.59)
0.02† (3.50)
0.91† (27.55)
0.83
1.52
Regional
71.51† (35.45)
−15.09† (−6.70)
−9.02† (−4.09)
5.31♯ (2.30)
0.62† (36.64)
229.06♯ (2.53)
−199.79♯ (−2.34)
−183.03♯ (−2.21)
−150.44* (−1.90)
0.17† (4.21)
0.50† (4.69)
0.64
1.42
National
71.31† (26.12)
−10.56† (−3.72)
−5.62♯ (−2.01)
8.06† (2.98)
0.69† (36.18)
108.86♯ (2.53)
−91.94† (−2.24)
−84.06♯ (−2.12)
−62.42 (−1.58)
0.37† (3.96)
0.47† (5.42)
1.67
2.32
(c) Northern China
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Beijing, regional, and national
Beijing
104.17† (19.62)
−20.64† (−3.87)
−19.15† (−3.56)
−15.07† (−2.81)
0.51† (22.21)
2026.18† (19.97)
−1758.96† (28.37)
−1461.45† (16.29)
−1338.17† (12.02)
0.40† (4.41)
0.32† (2.72)
0.02 (1.53)
0.88† (9.12)
2.15
5.12
Regional
82.30† (30.73)
−6.09♯ (−2.01)
−2.59 (−0.85)
12.62† (3.78)
0.64† (33.77)
64.33 (1.01)
−36.96 (−0.84)
−0.85 (−0.03)
5.85 (0.25)
0.17* (1.65)
0.77† (5.34)
19.63†
21.2♯
National
79.44† (35.24)
−6.51♯ (−2.51)
−3.41 (−1.34)
11.42† (4.17)
0.67† (37.50)
76.88* (1.78)
−51.53† (−1.57)
−11.91 (−0.53)
4.69† (0.20)
0.28† (2.74)
0.63† (4.54)
2.48
9.85
Huhehaote, regional, and national
Huhehaote
80.95† (13.80)
−27.22† (−4.33)
−19.58† (−2.95)
6.23 (0.96)
0.66† (32.39)
898.32† (4.03)
−864.09† (−4.13)
−838.20† (−4.15)
−737.24† (−4.24)
0.28† (3.53)
0.64† (6.73)
0.02† (2.70)
0.90† (20.13)
2.62
3.99
Regional
93.68† (26.43)
−9.93† (−2.64)
−4.88 (−1.20)
8.51* (1.77)
0.68† (40.40)
51.52 (0.54)
−41.16 (−0.51)
−14.73 (−0.25)
−3.80 (−0.09)
0.09 (1.41)
0.87† (7.30)
67.54†
77.31†
National
84.42† (36.09)
−10.99† (−4.48)
−5.72♯ (−2.26)
7.81† (2.91)
0.74† (50.63)
117.55♯ (2.04)
−97.18* (−1.89)
−59.62 (−1.49)
−26.66 (−0.80)
0.28† (4.85)
0.47† (3.47)
4.37
45.35†
Shijiazhuang, regional, and national
Shijiazhuang
96.16† (26.51)
−9.98† (−2.65)
−9.87♯ (−2.25)
7.81* (1.73)
0.70† (38.97)
623.90† (3.41)
−435.56† (−2.60)
−235.27 (−1.18)
−113.38 (−0.78)
0.40† (5.11)
0.29† (3.24)
0.03† (3.78)
0.77† (14.77)
0.7
7.41
Regional
92.35† (28.08)
−11.59† (−3.28)
−5.65 (−1.52)
7.79* (1.89)
0.67† (39.52)
78.43 (0.89)
−64.45 (−0.87)
−34.74 (−0.63)
−12.10 (−0.38)
0.11♯ (1.99)
0.84† (7.93)
179.27†
189.53†
National
86.39† (33.54)
−11.82† (−4.47)
−5.79♯ (−2.12)
7.44♯ (2.53)
0.71† (48.40)
173.03* (1.83)
−141.96* (−1.71)
−89.57 (−1.41)
−35.47 (−0.70)
0.28† (4.59)
0.46† (2.67)
9.74*
26.89†
Taiyuan, regional, and national
Taiyuan
89.844† (23.87)
−6.73* (−1.72)
2.23 (0.52)
12.92† (2.71)
0.65† (34.44)
−46.76* (−1.67)
−25.40 (−0.96)
−13.77 (−0.53)
0.10† (5.03)
0.88† (35.53)
0.01 (1.15)
0.70† (5.13)
10.93*
21.65♯
Regional
92.47† (21.38)
−14.56† (−3.29)
−11.21♯ (−2.43)
6.28 (1.17)
0.71† (40.61)
96.69 (0.68)
−84.85 (−0.68)
−60.19 (−0.57)
−48.95 (−0.54)
0.11 (1.53)
0.84† (6.23)
76.46†
82.57†
National
84.62† (30.67)
−11.46† (−4.07)
−7.41♯ (−2.51)
7.27† (2.50)
0.74† (45.13)
165.94♯ (2.53)
−136.82♯ (−2.29)
−87.56* (−1.67)
−56.59 (−1.19)
0.33† (4.69)
0.40† (3.22)
8.95
88.09†
Tianjin, regional, and national
Tianjin
81.29† (34.31)
−6.20♯ (−2.14)
−2.67 (−0.90)
11.63† (3.70)
0.57† (28.01)
63.60* (1.79)
−24.23 (−0.90)
12.06 (0.56)
9.22 (0.43)
0.16♯ (2.53)
0.79† (10.37)
0.10† (6.36)
0.37† (3.42)
3.04
4.33
Regional
102.78† (21.72)
−19.49† (−4.07)
−16.91† (−3.39)
−8.40* (−1.71)
0.54† (24.46)
1831.75† (20.78)
−1584.64† (27.10)
−1259.84† (−20.64)
−1170.60† (−15.75)
0.41† (5.11)
0.20* (1.77)
3.13
9.96
National
93.47† (25.52)
−16.94† (−4.56)
−13.50† (−3.46)
−2.74 (−0.71)
0.57† (27.47)
820.45† (9.42)
−710.87† (−8.93)
−566.76† (−7.32)
−510.70† (−7.25)
0.42† (5.16)
0.23♯ (2.12)
4.54
5.02
(d) Northeast
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Changchun, regional, and national
Changchun
76.97† (45.63)
−17.53† (−9.38)
−9.38† (−4.48)
11.21† (5.12)
0.49† (23.20)
61.17 (1.10)
−51.96 (−1.06)
−34.32 (−0.78)
−22.65 (−0.62)
0.05† (2.63)
0.88* (16.81)
0.04† (6.94)
0.90† (57.24)
14.33♯
16.04
Regional
84.80† (23.00)
−14.69† (−3.88)
−8.38♯ (−2.15)
10.68† (2.74)
0.64† (36.89)
93.05* (1.68)
−84.49 (−1.64)
−69.25 (−1.47)
−36.79 (−0.94)
0.17† (3.93)
0.76† (10.86)
3.66
5.59
National
81.04† (32.15)
−12.63† (−4.78)
−6.95♯ (−2.56)
9.52† (3.08)
0.72† (46.24)
43.96* (1.84)
−40.10* (−1.80)
−31.02 (−1.55)
−14.92 (−0.86)
0.16† (4.18)
0.78† (12.91)
25.75†
30.68†
Dalian, regional, and national
Dalian
70.41† (14.47)
−15.04† (−2.95)
−10.05♯ (−2.10)
1.93 (0.35)
0.54† (13.23)
555.30♯ (2.14)
−495.80♯ (−2.00)
−496.67♯ (−2.00)
−430.21* (−1.73)
0.35♯ (2.02)
0.50† (6.30)
0.02† (3.86)
0.96† (72.85)
0.99
1.53
Regional
88.39† (35.73)
−15.21† (−5.89)
−10.57† (−3.95)
9.06† (3.08)
0.60† (34.50)
74.50♯ (2.41)
−60.09♯ (−2.18)
−44.22* (−1.75)
−24.32 (−1.09)
0.14† (4.06)
0.78† (17.69)
3.19
5.33
National
74.27† (47.99)
−11.09† (−6.29)
−6.50† (−3.69)
6.08† (3.19)
0.71† (45.84)
30.93♯ (2.13)
−22.59♯ (−2.15)
−15.26♯ (−2.13)
−7.06 (−1.28)
0.23† (4.68)
0.66† (6.26)
4.85
9.1
Haerbin, regional, and national
Haerbin
79.00† (15.31)
−13.51♯ (−2.46)
−4.56 (−0.82)
16.90† (3.25)
0.61† (24.86)
199.95 (1.44)
−193.80 (−1.44)
−180.38 (−1.43)
−95.15 (−0.95)
0.17† (3.59)
0.79† (13.40)
0.02† (5.60)
0.92† (65.94)
1.65
3.74
Regional
80.11† (47.21)
−17.34† (−9.22)
−10.33† (−5.02)
10.43† (4.80)
0.54† (27.96)
48.24 (1.51)
−41.36 (−1.45)
−27.12 (−1.04)
−19.19 (−0.84)
0.06† (2.62)
0.87† (20.60)
25.43†
26.9†
National
78.41† (46.13)
−15.35† (−8.26)
−9.00† (−4.92)
9.75† (4.75)
0.65† (36.64)
26.96 (1.53)
−23.74 (−1.48)
−15.36 (−1.07)
−10.02 (−0.79)
0.09† (2.67)
0.85† (17.57)
37.43†
40.29†
Shenyang, regional, and national
Shenyang
89.73† (30.29)
−10.57† (−3.54)
−7.69♯ (−2.54)
10.05† (3.04)
0.56† (29.14)
86.81♯ (2.13)
−68.75* (−1.86)
−49.39 (−1.42)
−35.91 (−1.14)
0.15† (3.73)
0.81† (20.59)
0.03† (4.06)
0.92† (36.20)
1.82
3.63
Regional
76.66† (44.45)
−17.68† (−9.30)
−10.91† (−5.45)
7.28† (3.57)
0.57† (27.35)
53.10 (1.50)
−48.40 (−1.48)
−38.02 (−1.25)
−30.94 (−1.14)
0.09† (2.88)
0.85† (17.21)
4.06
6.59
National
74.05† (37.50)
−11.97† (−5.57)
−7.12† (−3.53)
9.11† (3.83)
0.72† (42.11)
26.61 (0.75)
−23.83 (−0.76)
−17.74 (−0.69)
−11.27 (−0.65)
0.18 (1.24)
0.77† (3.58)
(e) Northwest
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Lanzhou, regional, and national
Lanzhou
117.69† (10.74)
−41.57† (−3.66)
−31.43† (−2.73)
8.62 (0.58)
0.65† (22.14)
582.16† (3.90)
−548.06† (−3.74)
−534.41† (−3.62)
−320.70 (−1.31)
0.22† (4.10)
0.79† (25.28)
0.02† (7.30)
0.95† (162.9)
1.22
2.64
Regional
81.58† (33.93)
−16.39† (−6.33)
−11.51† (−4.41)
15.91† (5.86)
0.64† (31.19)
36.73 (1.43)
−33.75 (−1.43)
−28.01 (−1.24)
−9.09 (−0.55)
0.11* (1.82)
0.86† (12.74)
23.39†
25.27†
National
80.16† (21.37)
−11.69† (−3.05)
−5.23 (−1.46)
9.52† (2.66)
0.75† (39.18)
70.81 (0.99)
−61.50 (−0.94)
−62.76 (−0.96)
−41.94 (−0.75)
0.16† (3.06)
0.80† (8.72)
0.53
0.8
Xian, regional, and national
Xian
84.17† (14.44)
−5.20 (−0.90)
0.79 (0.14)
15.80♯ (2.57)
0.64† (29.90)
185.60 (1.18)
−158.11 (−1.11)
−138.12 (−1.05)
−115.80 (−0.94)
0.23† (3.43)
0.69† (5.71)
0.02† (6.60)
0.97† (191.6)
2.37
10.77
Regional
100.38† (18.09)
−33.10† (−5.80)
−25.96† (−4.52)
11.96* (1.81)
0.67† (32.61)
169.81† (2.61)
−162.12♯ (−2.56)
−151.89♯ (−2.45)
−89.60 (−1.50)
0.16† (4.46)
0.82† (25.69)
6.63
10.47
National
77.93† (31.43)
−10.85† (−4.17)
−4.81* (−1.84)
7.63♯ (2.44)
0.83† (68.17)
14.52 (1.47)
−12.72 (−1.44)
−9.23 (−1.20)
−3.54 (−0.68)
0.12† (3.54)
0.82† (12.74)
27.55†
34.17†
Yinchuan, regional, and national
Yinchuan
80.19† (33.17)
−22.54† (−8.94)
−17.07† (−6.84)
11.41† (4.31)
0.56† (24.60)
67.07 (1.44)
−64.53 (−1.43)
−57.04 (−1.29)
−31.29 (−0.77)
0.06† (2.97)
0.91† (31.57)
0.02† (5.53)
0.96† (99.98)
9.06
9.93
Regional
107.87 (15.81)
−31.07† (−4.39)
−22.46† (−3.16)
13.76 (1.59)
0.69† (27.01)
249.72† (2.67)
−232.40† (−2.60)
−224.93♯ (−2.59)
−115.87 (−1.43)
0.19† (4.62)
0.81† (20.29)
1.17
2.71
National
86.09† (22.68)
−15.53† (−4.08)
−10.03† (−2.63)
9.43♯ (2.14)
0.80† (56.83)
58.08* (1.83)
−53.48* (−1.77)
−47.53* (−1.68)
−26.11 (−1.15)
0.16† (5.48)
0.78† (14.84)
3.4
5.51
Wulumuqi, regional, and national
Wulumuqi
72.12† (10.04)
−18.49† (−2.79)
−3.91 (−0.53)
78.21† (6.58)
0.69† (31.18)
377.67 (1.19)
−356.11 (−1.17)
−306.93 (−1.13)
798.85 (1.07)
0.35† (3.61)
0.64† (4.97)
0.01† (3.86)
0.96† (76.15)
1.2
2.08
Regional
97.52† (20.62)
−26.81† (−5.57)
−21.36† (−4.36)
10.93♯ (1.96)
0.70† (37.94)
114.08♯ (2.18)
−108.68♯ (−2.14)
−100.45♯ (−2.03)
−60.11 (−1.35)
0.16† (4.74)
0.82† (24.23)
5.61
8.88
National
74.48† (31.22)
−10.91† (−4.40)
−5.90♯ (−2.45)
6.95♯ (2.48)
0.83† (60.64)
23.98 (1.54)
−21.50 (−1.50)
−17.37 (−1.38)
−9.29 (−0.99)
0.15† (3.86)
0.74† (8.11)
11.26♯
14.45
(f) Qinghai-Tibet
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Lasa, regional, and national
Lasa
57.46† (36.51)
−19.33† (−9.88)
−10.98† (−5.77)
0.64 (0.28)
0.62† (37.45)
17.00♯ (2.14)
−10.86* (−1.87)
−7.40 (−1.48)
22.71♯ (2.45)
0.08† (3.50)
0.86† (21.76)
0.01† (3.62)
0.97† (96.27)
23.74†
25.21†
Regional
88.46† (12.35)
−19.68† (−3.21)
−11.83* (−1.70)
1.54♯ (0.22)
0.60† (18.41)
715.67♯ (2.57)
−676.97† (−2.60)
−671.37† (−2.67)
−538.08♯ (−2.45)
0.51 (1.32)
0.58† (2.94)
1.03
1.34
National
73.37† (32.40)
−9.32† (−3.87)
−3.94* (−1.69)
8.97† (3.04)
0.85† (60.87)
13.92 (1.46)
−11.98 (−1.40)
−9.11 (−1.23)
−0.31 (−0.08)
0.12† (3.70)
0.79† (9.98)
14.38♯
18.1♯
Xining, regional, and national
Xining
88.46† (12.35)
−19.68† (−3.22)
−11.83* (−1.70)
1.54 (0.22)
0.60† (18.41)
715.67♯ (2.57)
−676.97† (−2.60)
−671.37† (−2.67)
−538.08♯ (−2.45)
0.51 (1.32)
0.58† (2.94)
0.02† (5.62)
0.96† (154.9)
0.84
1.56
Regional
57.46† (36.51)
−19.33† (−9.88)
−10.98† (−5.77)
0.64 (0.28)
0.62† (37.45)
17.00♯ (2.14)
−10.86* (−1.87)
−7.40 (−1.48)
22.71♯ (2.45)
0.08† (3.50)
0.86† (21.76)
23.49†
24.88†
National
95.83† (16.96)
−26.73† (−4.65)
−18.82† (−3.24)
10.41 (1.50)
0.72† (33.53)
150.38♯ (2.55)
−143.90♯ (−2.49)
−138.06♯ (−2.44)
−100.98* (−1.88)
0.21† (4.56)
0.80† (23.41)
2.86
4.75
(g) Southern China
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Guangzhou, regional, and national
Guangzhou
63.87† (32.45)
−6.48† (−2.63)
1.52 (0.55)
8.02† (2.89)
0.69† (45.66)
221.58♯ (2.25)
−131.67♯ (−2.23)
−72.52* (−1.90)
69.64* (1.76)
0.21† (3.67)
0.24 (0.88)
0.05† (4.29)
0.57† (3.85)
8.8
23.22†
Regional
46.88† (43.80)
−10.48† (−7.92)
5.58† (3.66)
10.15† (6.65)
0.70† (50.57)
42.45† (2.61)
−14.80♯ (−2.14)
−3.69 (−0.80)
13.99♯ (2.06)
0.14† (4.30)
0.44♯ (2.44)
3.23
10.26
National
49.64† (45.92)
−10.31† (−7.71)
4.62† (3.03)
9.39† (6.15)
0.73† (54.91)
30.85♯ (2.53)
−11.55♯ (−2.09)
−3.51 (−1.03)
10.89♯ (2.15)
0.14† (3.95)
0.49† (2.92)
3.88
6.07
Shenzhen, regional, and national
Shenzhen
51.54† (38.89)
−10.18† (−5.87)
8.41† (4.53)
10.77† (5.31)
0.66† (45.27)
20.55 (0.99)
−4.70 (−0.62)
−0.63* (−0.19)
13.20 (1.38)
0.06* (1.79)
0.83† (6.25)
0.01† (4.86)
0.99† (350.2)
15.56†
18.27*
Regional
48.53† (41.70)
−10.65† (−7.67)
2.42 (1.54)
9.66† (5.99)
0.71† (53.73)
61.26† (4.64)
−25.42† (−3.37)
−10.85* (−1.63)
6.91 (1.02)
0.19† (6.17)
0.24* (1.94)
6.37
23.90†
National
49.99† (43.19)
−10.66† (−7.75)
2.03 (1.31)
9.17† (5.74)
0.73† (55.81)
51.39† (4.58)
−22.36† (−3.46)
−10.27* (−1.83)
6.12 (1.05)
0.19† (6.01)
0.28♯ (2.24)
6.55
31.65†
Zhuhai, regional, and national
Zhuhai
43.34† (32.95)
−12.58† (−7.80)
2.33 (1.27)
10.36† (5.93)
0.70† (48.40)
3.78 (1.01)
−0.67 (−0.40)
−0.02 (−0.02)
1.26 (1.13)
0.06♯ (2.39)
0.91† (18.07)
0.01† (4.72)
0.99† (454.5)
27.76†
32.70†
Regional
54.27† (40.20)
−8.81† (−5.31)
6.72† (3.65)
10.03† (5.17)
0.70† (52.46)
95.13♯ (2.53)
−36.07♯ (−2.36)
−19.57* (−1.73)
38.50♯ (2.15)
0.13† (4.68)
0.33 (1.48)
3.23
19.45♯
National
55.12† (41.17)
−8.92† (−5.43)
6.23† (3.42)
9.72† (5.11)
0.71† (54.64)
80.44♯ (2.37)
−31.54♯ (−2.23)
−17.74* (−1.74)
32.49♯ (2.10)
0.12† (4.41)
0.37* (1.62)
7.26
10.18
Zhanjiang, regional, and national
Zhanjiang
46.59† (75.39)
−0.66 (0.80)
0.66 (0.83)
1.27* (1.67)
0.82† (71.11)
0.05 (1.14)
0.07 (1.05)
−0.02 (0.32)
0.07 (1.04)
0.04† (6.14)
0.95† (127.6)
0.06† (4.16)
0.69† (5.70)
12.08♯
18.65♯
Regional
39.49† (44.27)
−7.28† (−6.59)
5.11† (3.71)
8.71† (7.24)
0.76† (51.02)
4.07 (1.28)
−1.72 (−1.04)
0.25 (0.38)
1.16 (1.40)
0.09† (2.69)
0.82† (8.76)
8.1
20.89♯
National
46.43† (43.69)
−6.23† (−4.45)
4.84† (3.29)
7.53† (5.55)
0.83† (61.97)
12.16† (3.46)
−6.61† (−2.95)
−0.33 (−0.27)
3.20♯ (1.99)
0.15† (4.85)
0.54† (5.11)
26.87
94.48†
Haikou, regional, and national
Haikou
34.09† (38.43)
−7.02† (−5.93)
5.81† (3.85)
8.10† (6.71)
0.73† (45.76)
2.20 (0.97)
−0.33 (0.35)
1.04 (1.17)
1.24 (1.40)
0.07♯ (2.38)
0.89† (13.55)
0.01† (5.54)
0.98† (189.8)
2.61
6.26
Regional
47.98† (70.93)
−2.29† (−2.67)
1.98♯ (2.25)
3.80† (4.26)
0.79† (67.57)
0.03 (0.49)
0.14♯ (2.14)
0.09 (1.41)
0.29† (2.97)
0.03† (5.69)
0.96† (142.8)
13.26*
15.63
National
51.68† (54.92)
−2.49♯ (−2.02)
2.14* (1.80)
4.84† (4.24)
0.85† (73.05)
−0.01 (−0.19)
0.12♯ (2.11)
0.20† (3.87)
0.43† (4.66)
0.03† (4.60)
0.96† (124.2)
39.99†
40.52†
(h) Southeast
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Fuzhou, regional, and national
Fuzhou
65.16† (43.51)
−13.04† (−7.14)
−11.25† (−6.18)
−3.81* (−1.86)
0.58† (36.60)
78.15 (1.38)
−45.11 (−1.37)
−38.56 (−1.29)
13.39 (1.40)
0.09♯ (2.04)
0.70† (3.83)
0.03† (7.89)
0.95† (146.7)
17.67♯
22.24†
Regional
57.29† (37.40)
−15.79† (−7.67)
−1.93 (−1.05)
3.46* (1.78)
0.66† (46.08)
24.65† (3.18)
−13.49† (−3.11)
−12.14† (−2.83)
−1.78 (−0.58)
0.03* (1.86)
0.84† (19.40)
National
62.54† (37.39)
−10.29† (−5.02)
−2.32 (−1.20)
4.34♯ (2.20)
0.80† (58.50)
8.14 (0.84)
−5.72 (−0.84)
−3.19 (−0.69)
1.79 (1.55)
0.05 (1.15)
0.85† (5.59)
Shantou, regional, and national
Shantou
50.82† (34.11)
−12.34† (−6.29)
4.46♯ (2.42)
8.93† (4.70)
0.70† (48.90)
24.24† (2.83)
−11.62♯ (−2.40)
−11.74♯ (−2.44)
−3.85 (−1.07)
0.09† (4.33)
0.78† (13.97)
0.02† (6.38)
0.96† (151.9)
21.14†
24.22†
Regional
60.34† (38.90)
−16.38† (−8.30)
−5.07† (−2.75)
0.90 (0.45)
0.64† (43.43)
26.25† (3.31)
−15.74† (−3.14)
−11.98† (−2.66)
0.26 (0.08)
0.02 (1.21)
0.88† (22.26)
10.99♯
13.08
National
59.00† (35.81)
−9.24† (−3.83)
−0.24 (−0.13)
6.19† (3.10)
0.79† (60.31)
3.95 (0.51)
−2.47 (−0.48)
−1.27 (−0.31)
2.21† (3.08)
0.02 (0.67)
0.93† (8.49)
27.01†
35.09†
Xiamen, regional, and national
Xiamen
59.30† (38.55)
−17.24† (−8.37)
−3.68♯ (−1.98)
1.86 (0.94)
0.63† (42.92)
32.43† (3.02)
−17.00† (−3.14)
−15.24† (−2.82)
−3.10 (−0.83)
0.03* (1.64)
0.86† (16.32)
0.02† (6.64)
0.96† (125.0)
14.65♯
15.4
Regional
56.74† (39.19)
−12.66† (−7.28)
−2.45 (−1.42)
3.48* (1.82)
0.67† (46.99)
31.21† (2.72)
−22.11† (−2.66)
−16.77♯ (−2.46)
2.80 (0.71)
0.08† (2.93)
0.76† (10.10)
15.95♯
20.42♯
National
58.83† (35.93)
−8.93† (−4.50)
−0.45 (−0.24)
5.60† (2.89)
0.79† (58.44)
14.82* (1.82)
−10.77* (−1.77)
−7.17* (−1.65)
3.70* (1.73)
0.09† (2.60)
0.74† (6.34)
14.28♯
17.92♯
(i) Southwest
API
AR
ARCH (α)
GARCH (β)
(10)
Chengdu, regional, and national
Chengdu
86.59† (23.71)
−14.89† (−3.87)
−10.27♯ (−2.57)
4.53 (1.07)
0.62† (31.66)
112.81 (1.27)
−78.13 (−1.06)
−68.71 (−0.97)
−43.38 (−0.67)
0.19† (3.67)
0.70† (6.22)
0.03† (5.29)
0.90† (32.86)
0.35
0.61
Regional
90.71† (40.09)
−12.34† (−4.66)
−5.39* (−1.95)
5.24* (1.83)
0.73† (56.18)
47.58♯ (2.07)
−27.29♯ (−2.16)
−17.51* (−1.64)
−7.11 (−0.92)
0.08♯ (2.28)
0.79† (8.80)
National
76.43† (40.92)
−9.45† (−4.53)
−3.64* (−1.65)
6.21♯ (2.52)
0.81† (67.32)
13.87♯ (2.21)
−9.14♯ (−2.18)
−4.66 (−1.49)
0.54 (0.23)
0.11† (3.21)
0.79† (10.92)
Chongqing, regional, and national
Chongqing
87.31† (31.93)
−12.52† (−4.05)
−6.41* (−1.93)
6.73* (1.94)
0.71† (52.51)
72.30♯ (2.47)
−44.52♯ (−2.40)
−28.50* (−1.77)
−8.19 (−0.61)
0.10† (3.04)
0.79† (11.39)
0.03† (4.42)
0.91† (31.38)
3.87
4.23
Regional
77.47† (32.55)
−11.85† (−4.63)
−5.66♯ (−2.10)
5.04* (1.82)
0.68† (48.72)
50.64* (1.89)
−31.83 (−1.59)
−25.68 (−1.36)
−11.87 (−0.70)
0.12† (3.24)
0.73† (7.50)
7.4
7.57
National
75.48† (40.47)
−10.34† (−5.14)
−2.62 (−1.24)
8.20† (3.53)
0.80† (62.93)
50.84♯ (2.09)
−38.88* (−1.89)
−28.93* (−1.63)
−9.92 (−0.75)
0.13† (3.66)
0.55† (4.11)
33.13†
40.87†
Guiyang, regional, and national
Guiyang
68.18† (40.66)
−8.83† (−4.34)
−0.47 (−0.22)
5.65♯ (2.44)
0.62† (41.56)
9.71 (1.22)
−4.51 (−1.31)
1.27 (0.51)
0.99 (0.51)
0.04♯ (2.05)
0.93† (24.63)
0.02† (5.47)
0.95† (83.27)
76.21†
80.31†
Regional
75.56† (41.25)
−10.49† (−4.86)
−3.61* (−1.62)
5.39♯ (2.41)
0.76† (59.16)
29.96♯ (2.58)
−17.03♯ (−2.48)
−13.00♯ (−2.06)
−2.45 (−0.49)
0.08† (2.75)
0.77† (9.52)
2.83
4.7
National
70.32† (40.82)
−8.31† (−4.26)
−2.08 (−1.04)
5.67† (2.68)
0.84† (71.19)
10.98♯ (2.47)
−7.71♯ (−2.33)
−4.75* (−1.77)
0.97 (0.48)
0.10† (3.44)
0.77† (11.32)
29.04†
30.74†
Kunming, regional, and national
Kunming
64.92† (65.84)
−8.37† (−6.43)
−2.31* (−1.66)
2.66* (1.89)
0.58† (34.43)
55.43♯ (2.26)
−6.54 (−1.00)
10.41 (1.42)
12.28 (1.47)
0.15† (3.40)
0.49♯ (2.56)
0.02† (4.49)
0.93† (53.81)
5.57
12.19
Regional
73.45† (39.39)
−10.19† (−4.71)
−1.88 (−0.84)
6.49† (2.72)
0.75† (61.52)
15.96 (0.94)
−9.37 (−1.01)
−5.37 (−0.72)
−1.07 (−0.36)
0.03 (1.07)
0.89† (8.33)
29.57†
33.77†
National
69.07† (37.55)
−8.49† (−3.87)
−2.09 (−1.00)
6.53† (2.67)
0.84† (67.95)
2.98 (0.29)
−2.18 (−0.29)
−0.53 (−0.10)
1.13 (1.26)
0.04 (0.52)
0.92† (5.03)
83.07†
85.72†
Nanning, regional, and national
Nanning
52.73† (32.11)
−8.43† (−3.90)
8.77† (3.75)
10.03† (4.28)
0.72† (54.04)
79.25† (2.85)
−32.20† (−2.67)
3.39 (0.43)
40.26♯ (2.29)
0.08† (3.23)
0.48† (2.80)
0.01♯ (2.34)
0.93† (22.54)
7.02
8.16
Regional
73.66† (48.49)
−9.97† (−5.54)
−3.57* (−1.93)
4.50♯ (2.22)
0.70† (54.01)
4.93 (1.38)
−3.09* (−1.66)
−0.25 (−0.16)
−0.41 (0.46)
0.02♯ (1.99)
0.95† (34.76)
27.6†
30.99†
National
55.36† (42.36)
−5.06† (−3.08)
0.87 (0.57)
5.55† (3.46)
0.87† (77.70)
0.47 (0.62)
−0.27 (0.51)
0.31 (0.91)
0.82† (4.53)
0.03 (1.43)
0.95† (25.23)
17.84†
20.62♯
Notes: This table reports the estimation results of DCC-GARCH models for the city APIs against regional and national APIs. Absolute -ratios are indicated in parentheses. The and Q(10) are, respectively, the Ljung-Box autocorrelations test (1978) of five and lags in the standardized squared residuals from the regression. † , ♯,* denote statistical significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.