Research Article
Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood
Table 2
Simulation results for
,
, replications = 1000, and
= endemic rate.
| | | av | sd | av | av | sd | av | )a | av |
| | 100 | 1.34 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 98.7 | 30.6 | 36.9 | 89.0 | 57.6 | 250 | 1.45 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 247.6 | 58.1 | 60.8 | 89.4 | 143.4 | 1000 | 1.49 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1004.1 | 117.9 | 118.2 | 93.1 | 578.6 | 5000 | 1.50 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 5011.0 | 249.3 | 247.7 | 94.7 | 2907.1 |
| | 100 | 1.21 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 93.4 | 34.0 | 43.7 | 86.5 | 48.4 | 250 | 1.31 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 227.0 | 71.7 | 79.9 | 82.3 | 112.6 | 1000 | 1.32 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 947.0 | 209.2 | 213.0 | 85.8 | 425.2 | 5000 | 1.30 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 4965.1 | 540.7 | 536.1 | 92.5 | 2107.4 |
| | 100 | 1.24 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 104.6 | 30.5 | 42.8 | 92.5 | 57.2 | 250 | 1.32 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 251.8 | 63.6 | 76.1 | 90.7 | 131.4 | 1000 | 1.33 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1002.9 | 178.3 | 190.9 | 91.7 | 473.9 | 5000 | 1.31 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 5020.8 | 488.4 | 492.0 | 94.6 | 2205.1 |
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Coverage ratio for .
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