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The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2014, Article ID 434325, 9 pages
Research Article

Structural Breaks in Mean Temperature over Agroclimatic Zones in India

1Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India
2National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi 110012, India

Received 17 April 2014; Accepted 26 July 2014; Published 27 August 2014

Academic Editor: Jorge E. Gonzalez

Copyright © 2014 Ranjit Kumar Paul et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Amongst Asian countries India is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. During the past century, surface temperature in India has shown a significant increasing trend. In this paper, we have investigated behavior of mean monthly temperature during the period 1901–2001 over four agroclimatic zones of India and also tried to detect structural change in the temperature series. A structural break in the series has been observed at the national as well regional levels between 1970 and 1980. An analysis of trends before and after the structural break shows a significant increase in July temperature in the arid zone since 1972.