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The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 580606, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/580606
Research Article

Forecasting Optimal Solar Energy Supply in Jiangsu Province (China): A Systematic Approach Using Hybrid of Weather and Energy Forecast Models

School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China

Received 17 October 2013; Accepted 21 November 2013; Published 5 January 2014

Academic Editors: R. Pedicini and P. Pei

Copyright © 2014 Xiuli Zhao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. The future demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, “least-cost,” and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure effective and reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. After giving an overview of the sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classified the various models that existing studies have used to predict the influences of the weather influences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic weighting factor.