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The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2014, Article ID 702197, 8 pages
Research Article

Waiting Endurance Time Estimation of Electric Two-Wheelers at Signalized Intersections

MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

Received 1 March 2014; Accepted 26 April 2014; Published 7 May 2014

Academic Editor: Gang Ren

Copyright © 2014 Mei Huan and Xiao-bao Yang. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The paper proposed a model for estimating waiting endurance times of electric two-wheelers at signalized intersections using survival analysis method. Waiting duration times were collected by video cameras and they were assigned as censored and uncensored data to distinguish between normal crossing and red-light running behavior. A Cox proportional hazard model was introduced, and variables revealing personal characteristics and traffic conditions were defined as covariates to describe the effects of internal and external factors. Empirical results show that riders do not want to wait too long to cross intersections. As signal waiting time increases, electric two-wheelers get impatient and violate the traffic signal. There are 12.8% of electric two-wheelers with negligible wait time. 25.0% of electric two-wheelers are generally nonrisk takers who can obey the traffic rules after waiting for 100 seconds. Half of electric two-wheelers cannot endure 49.0 seconds or longer at red-light phase. Red phase time, motor vehicle volume, and conformity behavior have important effects on riders’ waiting times. Waiting endurance times would decrease with the longer red-phase time, the lower traffic volume, or the bigger number of other riders who run against the red light. The proposed model may be applicable in the design, management and control of signalized intersections in other developing cities.