Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts?

Table 4

Summary of predictive model fits and expected % change in deaths due to a 1°C increase in the thermal predictor over the 75th percentile based on each thermal indicator. ^∗𝑃<0.05; ^∗∗𝑃<0.01.

Inland plain city: Florence				Coastal plain city: Livorno
Indicators	AIC	𝑤𝑖 (AIC)	% change	Indicators	AIC	𝑤𝑖 (AIC)	% change
Ave_urb_ATsun	663.3	0.48	5.6 (0.5; 10.7)*	Min_urb_ATsha	587.7	0.58	10.3 (4.0; 16.6)**
Ave_urb_ATsha	665.1	0.19	4.8 (−1.1; 10.7)	Ave_sub_ATind	589.7	0.21	4.7 (0.2; 9.2)*
Max_urb_UTCI	666.2	0.11	4.9 (−1.0; 10.8)	Min_urb_ATsun	591.7	0.08	6.8 (1.7; 11.9)**
Min_urb_ATsun	667.2	0.07	6.1 (1.2; 11.0)*	Min_sub_ATind	591.7	0.08	4.8 (0.7; 8.9)*
Min_sub_ATsun	667.9	0.05	3.8 (−0.3; 7.9)	Max_sub_ATind	594.7	0.02	4.5 (−0.4; 9.4)
Min_urb_UTCI	668.2	0.04	9.2 (2.1; 16.3)*	Ave_sub_ATsun	596.0	0.01	3.3 (−0.4; 7)
Ave_urb_𝑇air	669.2	0.03	3.8 (−3.8; 11.4)	Ave_sub_ATsha	596.5	0.01	4.7 (0.1; 9.4)*
Max_urb_ATind	671.0	0.01	2.7 (−2.8; 8.2)	Min_sub_ATsun	597.5	0.00	4.1 (0.8; 7.4)*
Max_sub_UTCI	671.5	0.01	4.3 (−0.6; 9.2)	Max_sub_UTCI	599.0	0.00	6.5 (1.4; 11.6)*
Min_urb_ATind	672.7	0.00	8.0 (1.9; 14.1)*	Min_urb_ATind	600.2	0.00	9.6 (3.3; 15.9)**
Max_urb_𝑇air	673.2	0.00	1.3 (−4.8; 7.4)	Min_sub_UTCI	602.4	0.00	4.9 (0.8; 9.0)*
Max_sub_𝑇air	673.5	0.00	2.3 (−3.2; 7.8)	Max_sub_ATsun	603.4	0.00	2.6 (−1.1; 6.3)
Ave_sub_𝑇air	674.0	0.00	1.5 (−5.4; 8.4)	Ave_urb_ATind	604.4	0.00	8.5 (1.4; 15.6)*
Max_urb_ATsha	674.8	0.00	3.2 (−2.1; 8.5)	Min_sub_ATsha	604.9	0.00	4.7 (0.6; 8.8)*
Ave_sub_ATind	675.7	0.00	4.0 (−1.1; 9.1)	Max_sub_ATsha	605.6	0.00	3.6 (−1.3; 8.5)
Max_sub_ATsha	676.1	0.00	4.4 (−0.5; 9.3)	Min_urb_UTCI	606.7	0.00	11.7 (4.1; 19.3)**
Max_urb_ATsun	676.4	0.00	2.8 (−1.9; 7.5)	Ave_sub_𝑇air	607.7	0.00	8.4 (0.1; 16.8)*
Min_sub_UTCI	677.9	0.00	3.2 (−1.9; 8.3)	Max_urb_ATind	609.1	0.00	11.7 (3.9; 19.5)**
Min_sub_ATsha	678.4	0.00	5.3 (0.4; 10.2)*	Ave_sub_UTCI	613.8	0.00	5.5 (1.0; 10.0)*
Ave_sub_UTCI	679.3	0.00	3.3 (−2.2; 8.8)	Ave_urb_UTCI	617.6	0.00	11.3 (2.7; 19.9)**
Min_urb_𝑇air	679.8	0.00	10.2 (1.5; 16.7)*	Min_urb_𝑇air	617.8	0.00	9.2 (0.4; 18.0)*
Ave_sub_ATsha	680.0	0.00	3.0 (−1.9; 7.9)	Ave_urb_ATsha	620.6	0.00	6.4 (−0.5; 13.3)
Ave_sub_ATsun	680.4	0.00	3.7 (−0.4; 7.8)	Min_sub_𝑇air	621.3	0.00	7.2 (−0.4; 14.8)
Min_urb_ATsha	680.9	0.00	7.5 (1.6; 13.4)*	Ave_urb_ATsun	621.8	0.00	6.5 (1.0; 12.0)*
Max_sub_ATsun	681.8	0.00	4.3 (0.2; 8.4)*	Max_urb_ATsun	622.7	0.00	6.2 (0.7; 11.7)*
Max_sub_ATind	685.0	0.00	4.4 (−0.5; 9.3)	Max_sub_𝑇air	623.2	0.00	2.8 (−4.3; 9.9)
Ave_urb_UTCI	691.8	0.00	5.6 (−1.1; 12.3)	Ave_urb_𝑇air	631.4	0.00	10.2 (0.8; 19.6)*
Min_sub_𝑇air	702.3	0.00	7.1 (0.6; 13.6)*	Max_urb_UTCI	639.2	0.00	9.3 (1.1; 17.5)*
Min_sub_ATind	704.8	0.00	5.3 (0.2; 10.4)*	Max_urb_𝑇air	641.5	0.00	4.8 (−3.6; 13.2)
Ave_urb_ATind	713.8	0.00	4.5 (−1.0; 10.0)	Max_urb_ATsha	642.1	0.00	7.2 (0.3; 14.1)*

AIC: Akaike’s Information Criterion; 𝑤_𝑖 (AIC): Akaike weights; Max: maximum; Min: minimum; Ave: average; urb: urban; sub: suburban; UTCI: Universal Thermal Climate Index; AT_sun: apparent temperature assessed outdoors also taking into consideration the solar radiation contribution; AT_sha: apparent temperature assessed outdoors in the shade; AT_ind: apparent temperature assessed in indoor conditions; 𝑇_air: environmental temperature.