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The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2015, Article ID 729080, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/729080
Research Article

Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz’s 05 Chaotic Model

Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague, V Holešovičkách 2, 180 00 Prague, Czech Republic

Received 11 August 2014; Accepted 24 September 2014

Academic Editor: Ivan Zelinka

Copyright © 2015 Hynek Bednář et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Initial errors in weather prediction grow in time and, as they become larger, their growth slows down and then stops at an asymptotic value. Time of reaching this saturation point represents the limit of predictability. This paper studies the asymptotic values and time limits in a chaotic atmospheric model for five initial errors, using ensemble prediction method (model’s data) as well as error approximation by quadratic and logarithmic hypothesis and their modifications. We show that modified hypotheses approximate the model’s time limits better, but not without serious disadvantages. We demonstrate how hypotheses can be further improved to achieve better match of time limits with the model. We also show that quadratic hypothesis approximates the model’s asymptotic value best and that, after improvement, it also approximates the model’s time limits better for almost all initial errors and time lengths.