Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

Table 1

Predictive qualities of tested models on ex-post (out-of-sample predictions).

Neurons	Network optimization	RBF network		Hybrid neural network
		MSE	stdev	MSE	stdev
3	Backpropagation	0.0000282628	0.0000129939	0.0000169513	0.0000039062
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000175381	0.0000006224	0.0000137675	0.0000009931
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000180929	0.0000016469	0.0000136146	0.0000003816
4	Backpropagation	0.0000183763	0.0000028765	0.0000136485	0.0000005710
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000173006	0.0000004025	0.0000130549	0.0000003013
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000176860	0.0000006219	0.0000137306	0.0000010974
5	Backpropagation	0.0000299369	0.0000812952	0.0000168334	0.0000069884
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000174326	0.0000007575	0.0000133526	0.0000003885
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000176925	0.0000016246	0.0000141386	0.0000011016
6	Backpropagation	0.0000248756	0.0000105719	0.0000140990	0.0000016518
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000187115	0.0000024836	0.0000140002	0.0000011530
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000205995	0.0000073265	0.0000139753	0.0000010496
7	Backpropagation	0.000029955	0.0000381995	0.0000152401	0.0000018918
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000170959	0.0000002617	0.0000135883	0.0000004315
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000265817	0.0000100553	0.0000160908	0.0000033735
8	Backpropagation	0.0000530843	0.0000462909	0.0000161911	0.0000018501
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000169521	0.0000003200	0.0000133422	0.0000002243
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000181709	0.0000016133	0.0000152679	0.0000030365
9	Backpropagation	0.0000594814	0.0000611668	0.0000156977	0.0000018874
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000168649	0.0000002319	0.0000132936	0.0000003833
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000290958	0.0000136948	0.0000174571	0.0000049429
10	Backpropagation	0.0000842809	0.0000580551	0.0000163252	0.0000019133
	-means + backpropagation	0.0000179805	0.0000029834	0.0000139659	0.0000011918
	Genetic algorithm	0.0000236821	0.0000093964	0.0000193432	0.0000056131

stdev: standard deviation.