Statistical Downscaling for Rainfall Forecasts Using Modified Constructed Analog Method in Thailand

Table 6

Correlation between observed rainfall from predictors by using the MCAM taking into account the atmospheric predictors over Thailand regions including mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature (T850), moisture (Q850), and geopotential height (G850) at 850 hPa. Forecasts are for the months during 15 May to 15 October 2010 at the 30 TMD stations in Thailand.

Case	Station name	Rainfall forecast (mm) at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC				Rainfall (observed) (mm)
		G850	MSLP	Q850	T850
		MCAM
1	CHR	1152.58	1341.63	1390.64	2222.82	1540.60
2	CHM	723.58	862.40	942.57	818.44	973.00
3	LPG	667.36	804.75	938.11	788.37	725.50
4	PHR	734.34	870.95	1033.62	846.44	900.50
5	NAN	820.41	959.24	1222.31	946.86	1297.30
6	UTD	938.87	1144.53	1250.46	1105.18	1037.90
7	NKH	1224.59	1341.58	1425.12	1379.49	1409.00
8	LEI	822.28	1030.72	1053.69	978.46	1160.40
9	SNK	1240.49	1333.80	1384.30	1345.27	1193.10
10	NPN	1906.72	1832.11	1968.16	2010.12	1710.70
11	TAK1	653.16	785.28	795.61	761.54	849.40
12	TAK2	1179.41	1156.93	1284.27	1175.31	1081.00
13	TAK3	637.91	695.94	721.82	699.15	920.30
14	PCB	755.31	885.35	1008.43	883.82	915.10
15	KHK	845.48	1024.82	1058.59	1037.39	996.70
16	NSW	882.81	915.06	829.23	872.11	1167.70
17	RET	1011.71	1102.13	1136.17	1181.14	996.60
18	UBT	1314.67	1232.44	1258.11	1352.00	1348.60
19	SPB	766.24	783.16	727.32	819.29	767.10
20	LBR	788.67	829.28	992.68	893.92	1114.80
21	PBR	1470.92	1445.15	1403.02	1581.46	1722.20
22	SUR	1062.12	1067.91	1103.94	1165.84	1059.30
23	SAK	903.97	964.35	960.12	1034.75	1065.80
24	KCN	663.69	750.81	665.12	776.28	889.20
25	CHP	1005.73	1021.47	1039.10	1196.53	739.70
26	SRT	720.20	812.05	889.38	897.08	733.60
27	NST	695.21	786.75	895.67	756.17	716.60
28	PHK1	1543.50	1454.38	1573.16	1548.05	1494.00
29	PHK2	1538.32	1527.25	1420.82	1547.63	1935.70
30	TRG	1231.64	1264.99	2997.66	1372.56	1124.60
Correlation		0.84	0.86	0.51	0.79
Average sum of rainfall (mm)		996.73	1067.57	1178.97	1133.12	1119.53