A Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of Introducing Peste des Petits Ruminants into Northern Zambia from Tanzania
Table 3
Description of model uncertainties.
Assessment component
Uncertainty description
Direction of error
Magnitude
Release
Probability of C-ELISA and quarantine missing an infected goat
There have been no formal movement of goats/sheep from Tanzania into Zambia, hence most goats will not undergo testing and quarantine
Underestimated risk
High
Volume of trade
Most movements are illegal due to the porous border resulting in many trade routes
Underestimated risk
Moderate
Exposure
The probability of the quarantine missing a positive animal
There are no known quarantine stations in Northern Zambia. On-farm quarantine is difficult to enforce in cases where illegal animal movements are not detected