Multistep-Ahead Prediction of Urban Traffic Flow Using GaTS Model

Table 1

Results of six models , , from one- to four-step-ahead.

Prediction	Location		Scale				MAE	RMSE	BIC
	1-step ahead
	9	×	×	×	0.913	0.9209	23.1128	35.2989	3624.776
	9	×	1	×	0.9758	0.9816	21.2866	30.8052	3553.057
	4	1	1	0	0.9856	0.9906	15.5009	20.4802	3356.326
	5	1	1	0	0.9794	0.9853	16.1826	21.9583	3466.493
	4	1	1	0	0.9804	0.9869	15.9534	21.5957	3443.754
	5	1	1	0	0.9828	0.9892	15.5007	20.7218	3370.927
2-step ahead
	9	×	×	×	0.8054	0.7984	33.1687	56.364	3790.313
	9	×	1	×	0.9584	0.966	31.569	47.9216	3767.335
	4	1	1	0	0.9835	0.9884	16.7219	22.9739	3416.928
	5	1	1	0	0.9753	0.9795	18.6151	26.5485	3578.103
	4	1	1	0	0.9817	0.9845	17.1965	24.5677	3493.702
	4	1	1	0	0.9834	0.9888	16.8457	23.5447	3423.929
3-step ahead
	9	×	×	×	0.6415	0.5814	41.5642	81.2282	3944.636
	9	×	1	×	0.7395	0.7138	36.8849	63.09	3901.592
	3	1	1	0	0.9823	0.9869	17.5917	24.303	3422.813
	4	1	1	0	0.9705	0.9748	19.194	27.9442	3598.335
	4	1	1	0	0.9778	0.9816	18.2077	25.8022	3505.349
	3	1	1	0	0.9822	0.9863	17.3481	24.7383	3431.816
4-step ahead
	9	×	×	×	0.5572	0.5127	54.2951	115.5521	4042.217
	9	×	1	×	0.6141	0.5618	45.6247	77.9117	3993.805
	3	1	1	0	0.9856	0.9859	17.9045	25.4079	3425.344
	4	1	1	0	0.9769	0.9656	20.0474	28.9373	3603.713
	4	1	1	0	0.984	0.9779	18.8877	26.9388	3521.464
	3	1	1	0	0.9864	0.9858	18.0882	25.606	3434.907