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Advances in Materials Science and Engineering
Volume 2016, Article ID 9605450, 8 pages
Research Article

Prediction Intervals for the Failure Time of Prestressed Concrete Beams

TU Dortmund University, 44227 Dortmund, Germany

Received 24 March 2016; Accepted 20 July 2016

Academic Editor: Konstantinos I. Tserpes

Copyright © 2016 Sebastian Szugat et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The aim is the prediction of the failure time of prestressed concrete beams under low cyclic load. Since the experiments last long for low load, accelerated failure tests with higher load are conducted. However, the accelerated tests are expensive so that only few tests are available. To obtain a more precise failure time prediction, the additional information of time points of breakage of tension wires is used. These breakage time points are modeled by a nonlinear birth process. This allows not only point prediction of a critical number of broken tension wires but also prediction intervals which express the uncertainty of the prediction.